Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Spurs NO @ SA

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

11-36  |  Road

104
FINAL
Sun, Jan 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

31-14  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
PELICANS --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (San Antonio)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

5.5%

Spurs Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

NO By 1-7 points

4.0%

NO By 8-14 points

0.8%

SA By 1-7 points

13.7%

SA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
113
NEW ORLEANS
129
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
107
NEW ORLEANS
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spurs (-12) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Spurs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o240.0 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u240.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 25, 2026 NO @ SA 104 - 95
Dec 8, 2025 SA @ NO 135 - 132
Nov 8, 2025 NO @ SA 119 - 126
Oct 24, 2025 SA @ NO 120 - 116
Mar 15, 2025 NO @ SA 115 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +50.5% more
San Antonio: 7.6 vs New Orleans: 5.1
Assists (L5) +13.3% more
San Antonio: 28.3 vs New Orleans: 25.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
San Antonio: 37.1% vs New Orleans: 33.9%
Steals (L5) +32.0% more
New Orleans: 10.9 vs San Antonio: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 113.0 104
SA Score 129.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 33.9 27.0 / 26.0
Assists 28.3 / 25.0 22.0 / 23.0
Blocks 7.6 / 5.1 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 46.4 40.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 83.0 / 81.7 59.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 43.1 / 45.6 46.0 / 58.0
Steals 7.4 / 10.9 2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 13.3 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
NO
SA
NO
ML
60% 111-73
62% 98-61
58% 61-44
58% 48-35
ATS
58% 107-76-1
68% 107-51-1
58% 61-44
58% 48-35
TTL
74% 134-47-3
75% 119-40
100% 105-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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