TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
28-19 | Road
103
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
37-9 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
THUNDER
0%
RAPTORS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
TOR By 1-7 points
4.0%
TOR By 8-14 points
0.8%
OKC By 1-7 points
13.7%
OKC By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
102
TORONTO
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Toronto
108
TORONTO
Oklahoma City
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (-11)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u224.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u224.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
OKC @ TOR
116 - 107
Jan 25, 2026
TOR @ OKC
103 - 101
Feb 7, 2025
TOR @ OKC
109 - 121
Dec 5, 2024
OKC @ TOR
129 - 92
Mar 22, 2024
OKC @ TOR
123 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+20.4% more
Oklahoma City: 6.7
vs
Toronto: 5.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Oklahoma City: 51.5%
vs
Toronto: 49.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+25.4% more
Toronto: 13.9
vs
Oklahoma City: 10.4
Assists (L5)
+25.3% more
Toronto: 31.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 23.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
102.0
103
OKC Score
118.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 36.1
26.0 / 35.0
Assists
23.2 / 31.1
21.0 / 28.0
Blocks
6.7 / 5.5
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
51.5 / 49.9
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 79.2
77.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
41.7 / 43.7
37.0 / 51.0
Steals
7.8 / 7.7
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 13.9
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
TOR
OKC
TOR
ML
70%
80-34
55%
57-47
48%
46-49
55%
48-39
ATS
73%
83-30-1
61%
62-40-2
48%
46-49
55%
48-39
TTL
67%
76-38
60%
62-42
100%
95-0
100%
87-0
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