FLORIDA ATLANTIC
OWLSFAU
14-6 | Road
75
SOUTH FLORIDA
BULLSUSF
12-7 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
0%
BULLS
100%
OWLS
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)
FAU By 1-7 points
0.0%
FAU By 8-14 points
0.3%
USF By 1-7 points
0.0%
USF By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida Atlantic
89
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
South Florida
47
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Florida Atlantic
75
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
South Florida
72
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Owls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Owls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Owls (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Owls (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u166.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u166.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 15, 2026
USF @ FAU
83 - 81
Jan 25, 2026
FAU @ USF
75 - 89
Mar 2, 2025
FAU @ USF
69 - 63
Feb 2, 2025
USF @ FAU
72 - 94
Feb 18, 2024
FAU @ USF
86 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
Florida Atlantic: 49.6%
vs
South Florida: 42.1%
Blocks (L5)
+30.5% more
South Florida: 6.2
vs
Florida Atlantic: 4.8
Rebounding (L5)
+17.1% more
South Florida: 43.7
vs
Florida Atlantic: 37.3
Assists (L5)
+8.8% more
South Florida: 17.3
vs
Florida Atlantic: 15.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAU Score
89.0
75
USF Score
47.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 32.3
26.0 / 32.0
Assists
17.3 / 15.9
18.0 / 8.0
Blocks
6.2 / 4.8
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 49.6
44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 65.2
71.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
43.7 / 37.3
49.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.1 / 7.2
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 12.3
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
USF
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
USF
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
FAU
USF
FAU
ML
61%
20-13
64%
21-12
52%
16-15
66%
21-11
ATS
61%
20-13
70%
23-10
52%
16-15
66%
21-11
TTL
52%
17-16
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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