Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Roos OMA @ KC

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

9-12  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Swinney Center
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROOSKC

4-16  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
ROOS
0%
MAVERICKS --
ROOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Kansas City)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 RoosKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

34.5%

Roos Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

OMA By 1-7 points

20.1%

OMA By 8-14 points

9.3%

KC By 1-7 points

27.4%

KC By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
89
OMAHA
93
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
72
OMAHA
75
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Roos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Roos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Roos (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Roos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 OMA @ KC 77 - 60
Jan 3, 2026 KC @ OMA 73 - 66
Mar 6, 2025 KC @ OMA 61 - 70
Feb 19, 2025 OMA @ KC 78 - 66
Jan 8, 2025 KC @ OMA 58 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.8% more
Kansas City: 3.8 vs Omaha: 2.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
Kansas City: 36.7% vs Omaha: 28.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.5%
Kansas City: 70.6% vs Omaha: 68.2%
Steals (L5) +26.6% more
Omaha: 7.0 vs Kansas City: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 89.0 77
KC Score 93.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 28.9 26.0 / 32.0
Assists 11.9 / 12.2 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.6 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 47.9 37.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 68.2 53.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 32.4 29.0 / 44.0
Steals 5.1 / 7.0 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 11.6 15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
KC
4-27-0 (12.9%)
Margin: -14.5 ATS +/-: -6.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
KC
5-23-0 (17.9%)
Margin: -14.5 ATS +/-: -6.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
KC
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
OMA
KC
OMA
ML
63% 19-11
79% 26-7
67% 20-10
67% 22-11
ATS
67% 20-10
76% 25-8
67% 20-10
67% 22-11
TTL
70% 21-9
73% 24-9
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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