UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
8-12 | Road
56
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
11-7 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
RIVER HAWKS
100%
RETRIEVERS
0%
RIVER HAWKS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (UMBC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMBC -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
UML By 1-7 points
0.2%
UML By 8-14 points
0.0%
UMBC By 1-7 points
1.7%
UMBC By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UMass Lowell
62
UMASS LOWELL
UMBC
90
UMBC
Simulated Score
UMass Lowell
70
UMASS LOWELL
UMBC
72
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Retrievers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Retrievers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
UML @ UMBC
69 - 91
Feb 28, 2026
UMBC @ UML
84 - 60
Jan 24, 2026
UML @ UMBC
56 - 79
Feb 20, 2025
UMBC @ UML
79 - 98
Feb 1, 2025
UML @ UMBC
83 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+15.7% more
UMBC: 4.4
vs
UMass Lowell: 3.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
UMBC: 49.8%
vs
UMass Lowell: 43.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.1%
UMBC: 76.5%
vs
UMass Lowell: 71.4%
Blocks (L5)
+72.8% more
UMass Lowell: 4.9
vs
UMBC: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UML Score
62.0
56
UMBC Score
90.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 35.6
38.0 / 17.0
Assists
11.4 / 10.8
7.0 / 6.0
Blocks
1.3 / 4.9
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 43.0
49.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 71.4
95.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 37.7
35.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.4 / 3.8
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
7.1 / 12.4
9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UML
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UML
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
UML
UMBC
UML
ML
58%
18-13
70%
23-10
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
ATS
68%
21-10
70%
23-10
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
TTL
39%
12-19
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
