STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
16-3 | Road
88
LAMAR
CARDINALSLAM
10-9 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LAMAR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Lamar)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAM)
SFA By 1-7 points
24.3%
SFA By 8-14 points
13.7%
LAM By 1-7 points
26.2%
LAM By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Stephen F. Austin
93
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Lamar
94
LAMAR
Simulated Score
Stephen F. Austin
72
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Lamar
68
LAMAR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Win
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
LAM @ SFA
74 - 84
Jan 24, 2026
SFA @ LAM
88 - 81
Feb 1, 2025
LAM @ SFA
67 - 62
Jan 11, 2025
SFA @ LAM
72 - 63
Feb 19, 2022
SFA @ LAM
70 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.3% more
Lamar: 3.8
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+29.4% more
Lamar: 12.9
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 10.0
Assists (L5)
+12.8% more
Lamar: 14.2
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 12.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
Lamar: 39.1%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 30.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFA Score
93.0
88
LAM Score
94.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 30.4
38.0 / 48.0
Assists
14.2 / 12.6
23.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.8 / 2.5
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 44.0
48.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 71.7
87.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 40.1
36.0 / 27.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.4
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 10.0
11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
LAM
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
LAM
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAM
SFA
LAM
SFA
ML
55%
16-13
59%
17-12
59%
17-12
79%
23-6
ATS
52%
15-14
59%
17-12
60%
18-12
79%
23-6
TTL
72%
21-8
62%
18-11
100%
30-0
100%
29-0
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