MORGAN STATE
BEARSMORG
6-13 | Road
78
HOWARD
BISONHOW
12-8 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
BISON
0%
BEARS
--
BISON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
115.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
HOWARD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Howard)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOW -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOW)
MORG By 1-7 points
9.3%
MORG By 8-14 points
2.7%
HOW By 1-7 points
21.6%
HOW By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Morgan State
52
MORGAN STATE
Howard
63
HOWARD
Simulated Score
Morgan State
70
MORGAN STATE
Howard
78
HOWARD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bison
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bison
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bison (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Bison (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 115.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
HOW @ MORG
84 - 59
Jan 24, 2026
MORG @ HOW
78 - 77
Mar 13, 2025
MORG @ HOW
91 - 90
Feb 22, 2025
HOW @ MORG
87 - 81
Jan 11, 2025
MORG @ HOW
95 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+78.4% more
Howard: 9.8
vs
Morgan State: 5.5
Turnovers (L5)
+29.0% more
Howard: 13.7
vs
Morgan State: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.5%
Howard: 71.8%
vs
Morgan State: 70.3%
Blocks (L5)
+31.4% more
Morgan State: 5.5
vs
Howard: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MORG Score
52.0
78
HOW Score
63.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.3 / 35.9
17.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.5 / 18.1
10.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.7 / 5.5
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 50.1
31.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 70.3
80.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 39.6
52.0 / 40.0
Steals
9.8 / 5.5
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 10.6
17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
HOW
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG
14-12-1
(53.8%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
HOW
Advantage
22-8-1
(73.3%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7%
Total +/-: +2.5
HOW
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOW
MORG
HOW
MORG
ML
59%
20-14
50%
14-14
71%
22-9
58%
14-10
ATS
59%
20-14
50%
14-14
71%
22-9
58%
14-10
TTL
62%
21-13
50%
14-14
100%
31-0
100%
24-0
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