ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
16-5 | Road
90
SOUTH DAKOTA
COYOTESSDAK
11-10 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
0%
COYOTES
100%
TOMMIES
--
COYOTES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STMN -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
STMN By 1-7 points
10.7%
STMN By 8-14 points
21.6%
SDAK By 1-7 points
2.7%
SDAK By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
90
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
South Dakota
72
SOUTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
68
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
South Dakota
72
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Coyotes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tommies (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Coyotes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o161.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
STMN @ SDAK
90 - 78
Jan 7, 2026
SDAK @ STMN
86 - 99
Feb 19, 2025
STMN @ SDAK
80 - 85
Jan 11, 2025
SDAK @ STMN
104 - 119
Feb 17, 2024
SDAK @ STMN
80 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+31.1% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 7.9
vs
South Dakota: 5.5
Blocks (L5)
+15.3% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.6
vs
South Dakota: 2.2
Assists (L5)
+10.2% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 15.6
vs
South Dakota: 14.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 50.0%
vs
South Dakota: 47.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STMN Score
90.0
90
SDAK Score
72.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.0 / 38.1
33.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.0 / 15.6
11.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.6
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 50.0
44.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 68.8
79.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
31.5 / 32.2
25.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.5 / 7.9
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 12.4
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SDAK
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SDAK
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDAK
STMN
SDAK
STMN
ML
70%
21-9
64%
21-12
63%
19-11
64%
21-12
ATS
70%
21-9
70%
23-10
63%
19-11
64%
21-12
TTL
67%
20-10
61%
20-13
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
