ARMY
BLACK KNIGHTSARMY
8-12 | Road
56
NAVY
MIDSHIPMENNAVY
14-6 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK KNIGHTS
0%
MIDSHIPMEN
100%
BLACK KNIGHTS
--
MIDSHIPMEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NAVY +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)
ARMY By 1-7 points
26.2%
ARMY By 8-14 points
16.9%
NAVY By 1-7 points
24.3%
NAVY By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Army
55
ARMY
Navy
54
NAVY
Simulated Score
Army
65
ARMY
Navy
68
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Black Knights
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Midshipmen
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Midshipmen (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Midshipmen (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
NAVY @ ARMY
81 - 63
Jan 24, 2026
ARMY @ NAVY
56 - 84
Feb 15, 2025
ARMY @ NAVY
54 - 61
Jan 26, 2025
NAVY @ ARMY
66 - 53
Feb 10, 2024
NAVY @ ARMY
67 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
Army: 81.2%
vs
Navy: 72.5%
Steals (L5)
+25.2% more
Navy: 6.1
vs
Army: 4.8
Rebounding (L5)
+11.0% more
Navy: 37.4
vs
Army: 33.7
Assists (L5)
+8.1% more
Navy: 15.9
vs
Army: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score
55.0
56
NAVY Score
54.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 35.1
55.0 / 26.0
Assists
15.9 / 14.8
21.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.0 / 2.2
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 44.9
58.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
72.5 / 81.2
75.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 33.7
38.0 / 21.0
Steals
6.1 / 4.8
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 10.2
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
NAVY
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
NAVY
Advantage
20-11-1
(64.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.3
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
ARMY
NAVY
ARMY
ML
79%
26-7
44%
14-18
55%
18-15
50%
16-16
ATS
73%
24-9
44%
14-18
55%
18-15
50%
16-16
TTL
73%
24-9
81%
26-6
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
