WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
25-21-6 | Road
5
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
25-19-8 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Tristan Jarry
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 5.92 | 0.850 | -- |
| Tristan Jarry | None-None | 4.90 | 0.867 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.92
GAA
Ldr 4.90
0.850
Save %
Ldr 0.867
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
OILERS
0%
CAPITALS
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
9.3%
EDM By 1 goal
19.7%
EDM By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Edmonton
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Oilers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Oilers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Oilers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
WSH @ EDM
5 - 6
Nov 19, 2025
EDM @ WSH
4 - 7
Feb 23, 2025
EDM @ WSH
3 - 7
Jan 21, 2025
WSH @ EDM
3 - 2
Mar 13, 2024
WSH @ EDM
2 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+33.6% more
Washington: 18.4
vs
Edmonton: 12.2
Takeaways (L5)
+20.3% more
Washington: 4.2
vs
Edmonton: 3.3
Power Play % (L5)
+11.2%
Washington: 23.2%
vs
Edmonton: 12.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.0
5
EDM Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.2 / 18.4
18.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
53.3 / 54.1
51.0 / 49.0
Hits
17.3 / 18.2
11.0 / 8.0
Power Play %
12.0 / 23.2
20.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
29.8 / 31.5
40.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
3.3 / 4.2
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
WSH
EDM
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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