SACRAMENTO STATE
HORNETSSAC
6-12 | Road
67
EASTERN WASHINGTON
EAGLESEWU
4-15 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
EAGLES
0%
HORNETS
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
EASTERN WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Eastern Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EWU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EWU)
SAC By 1-7 points
9.3%
SAC By 8-14 points
2.7%
EWU By 1-7 points
21.6%
EWU By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento State
74
SACRAMENTO STATE
Eastern Washington
85
EASTERN WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Sacramento State
74
SACRAMENTO STATE
Eastern Washington
82
EASTERN WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Eagles (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
EWU @ SAC
102 - 94
Jan 24, 2026
SAC @ EWU
67 - 75
Feb 6, 2025
SAC @ EWU
80 - 83
Jan 11, 2025
EWU @ SAC
65 - 54
Mar 10, 2024
SAC @ EWU
74 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+62.7% more
Eastern Washington: 4.3
vs
Sacramento State: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+43.4% more
Eastern Washington: 12.5
vs
Sacramento State: 8.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Eastern Washington: 35.2%
vs
Sacramento State: 28.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Eastern Washington: 42.9%
vs
Sacramento State: 40.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
74.0
67
EWU Score
85.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 28.4
33.0 / 29.0
Assists
10.9 / 13.7
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.3 / 2.6
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 40.7
46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
80.2 / 85.6
83.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
29.4 / 35.5
31.0 / 25.0
Steals
6.6 / 7.7
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 8.7
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
EWU
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
EWU
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
EWU
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EWU
SAC
EWU
SAC
ML
64%
21-12
57%
17-13
69%
22-10
87%
26-4
ATS
64%
21-12
73%
22-8
69%
22-10
87%
27-4
TTL
48%
16-17
60%
18-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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