Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Miners MOST @ UTEP

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

11-8  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 4:00 PM ET
Don Haskins Center
View Odds Details →

UTEP

MINERSUTEP

7-12  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
MINERS
100%
BEARS --
MINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Missouri State)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 MinersUTEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

94.5%

Miners Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MOST -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

MOST By 1-7 points

13.7%

MOST By 8-14 points

24.3%

UTEP By 1-7 points

4.0%

UTEP By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
85
MISSOURI STATE
69
UTEP
Simulated Score
68
MISSOURI STATE
72
UTEP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Miners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Miners (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 MOST @ UTEP 62 - 57
Jan 2, 2026 UTEP @ MOST 55 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +16.2% more
Missouri State: 36.0 vs UTEP: 30.2
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Missouri State: 71.1% vs UTEP: 66.4%
Blocks (L5) +107.9% more
UTEP: 4.2 vs Missouri State: 2.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
UTEP: 39.5% vs Missouri State: 35.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 85.0 62
UTEP Score 69.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 35.8 42.0 / 28.0
Assists 15.2 / 14.7 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.2 / 2.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 46.2 38.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 66.4 / 71.1 73.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 30.2 / 36.0 26.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.0 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 11.8 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTEP
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTEP
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
UTEP
12-15-1
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
MOST
UTEP
MOST
ML
70% 21-9
65% 22-12
72% 21-8
62% 21-13
ATS
57% 17-13
68% 23-11
73% 22-8
62% 21-13
TTL
60% 18-12
44% 15-19
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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