Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Broncs @ Mountaineers RID @ MSM

RIDER

BRONCSRID

2-16  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 4:00 PM ET
Knott Arena
View Odds Details →

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

8-13  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
BRONCS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
BroncsRID (-3.5) 0 MountaineersMSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncs Cover

0.2%

Mountaineers Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSM -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)

RID By 1-7 points

0.1%

RID By 8-14 points

0.0%

MSM By 1-7 points

1.4%

MSM By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
53
RIDER
82
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
70
RIDER
74
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 13, 2026 MSM @ RID 65 - 55
Jan 24, 2026 RID @ MSM 61 - 71
Feb 23, 2025 RID @ MSM 72 - 79
Jan 16, 2025 MSM @ RID 60 - 66
Feb 16, 2024 MSM @ RID 57 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +57.3% more
Mount St. Mary's: 5.9 vs Rider: 3.8
Blocks (L5) +38.6% more
Mount St. Mary's: 3.8 vs Rider: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +27.6% more
Mount St. Mary's: 14.2 vs Rider: 11.1
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
Mount St. Mary's: 71.2% vs Rider: 67.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RID Score 53.0 61
MSM Score 82.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 29.5 43.0 / 35.0
Assists 10.9 / 14.2 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.8 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 43.1 52.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 67.0 61.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 36.0 35.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.9 / 3.8 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 11.1 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RID
4-25-0 (13.8%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RID
7-18-3 (28.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -0.2
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
RID
MSM
RID
ML
53% 17-15
72% 21-8
61% 19-12
66% 19-10
ATS
62% 20-12
72% 21-8
61% 19-12
66% 19-10
TTL
81% 26-6
62% 18-11
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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