Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Pioneers UND @ DEN

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

11-12  |  Road

93
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 4:00 PM ET
Hamilton Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

9-12  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
PIONEERS
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
PIONEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Denver)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 PioneersDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

8.1%

Pioneers Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

UND By 1-7 points

5.8%

UND By 8-14 points

1.4%

DEN By 1-7 points

16.9%

DEN By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
77
NORTH DAKOTA
91
DENVER
Simulated Score
70
NORTH DAKOTA
75
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pioneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pioneers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pioneers (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Pioneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o162.5 Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 DEN @ UND 67 - 83
Feb 7, 2026 DEN @ UND 98 - 79
Jan 24, 2026 UND @ DEN 93 - 86
Feb 13, 2025 DEN @ UND 68 - 64
Jan 9, 2025 UND @ DEN 95 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.4% more
Denver: 9.1 vs North Dakota: 7.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Denver: 79.4% vs North Dakota: 74.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Denver: 48.5% vs North Dakota: 46.5%
Steals (L5) +62.2% more
North Dakota: 10.4 vs Denver: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 77.0 93
DEN Score 91.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 45.1 48.0 / 46.0
Assists 11.2 / 11.2 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.5 / 2.6 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 46.5 50.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 79.4 / 74.3 67.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 32.0 31.0 / 37.0
Steals 3.9 / 10.4 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 7.9 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
DEN
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
UND
DEN
UND
ML
56% 18-14
44% 15-19
59% 19-13
50% 17-17
ATS
66% 21-11
50% 17-17
59% 19-13
50% 17-17
TTL
59% 19-13
65% 22-12
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 7 hours, 30 minutes ago
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 7 hours, 37 minutes ago
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 7 hours, 40 minutes ago
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 14 hours, 13 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 20 hours, 21 minutes ago