Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Broncos AF @ BOIS

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-16  |  Road

54
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 4:00 PM ET
ExtraMile Arena
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

11-8  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
FALCONS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Boise State)
FalconsAF (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

0.3%

Broncos Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

AF By 1-7 points

0.3%

AF By 8-14 points

0.0%

BOIS By 1-7 points

2.2%

BOIS By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
68
AIR FORCE
95
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
65
AIR FORCE
78
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (-23) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.0 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u135.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 AF @ BOIS 54 - 96
Mar 4, 2025 BOIS @ AF 80 - 57
Dec 21, 2024 AF @ BOIS 59 - 77
Feb 27, 2024 BOIS @ AF 79 - 48
Feb 3, 2024 AF @ BOIS 56 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +135.3% more
Boise State: 2.7 vs Air Force: 1.2
Steals (L5) +27.3% more
Boise State: 6.2 vs Air Force: 4.8
Assists (L5) +18.5% more
Boise State: 12.8 vs Air Force: 10.8
Rebounding (L5) +15.8% more
Boise State: 31.5 vs Air Force: 27.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AF Score 68.0 54
BOIS Score 95.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 27.0 52.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.8 / 10.8 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.7 / 1.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 39.8 57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 84.8 / 76.1 72.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 27.2 38.0 / 19.0
Steals 6.2 / 4.8 7.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 15.0 4.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
BOIS Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
AF
BOIS
AF
ML
50% 16-16
81% 26-6
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
ATS
50% 16-16
69% 22-10
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
TTL
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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