Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gaels @ Pilots SMC @ PORT

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

18-3  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Chiles Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

10-11  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
📊
PILOTS
0%
GAELS --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Portland)
GaelsSMC (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

6.7%

Pilots Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PORT -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

SMC By 1-7 points

4.8%

SMC By 8-14 points

1.1%

PORT By 1-7 points

15.3%

PORT By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
SAINT MARY'S
99
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
78
SAINT MARY'S
62
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pilots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pilots (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Gaels (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 SMC @ PORT 75 - 69
Jan 2, 2026 PORT @ SMC 57 - 78
Feb 19, 2025 PORT @ SMC 66 - 79
Jan 4, 2025 SMC @ PORT 81 - 58
Feb 10, 2024 SMC @ PORT 76 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.5% more
Portland: 11.7 vs Saint Mary's: 10.0
Blocks (L5) +28.0% more
Saint Mary's: 3.6 vs Portland: 2.6
Steals (L5) +11.5% more
Saint Mary's: 5.8 vs Portland: 5.2
Rebounding (L5) +10.3% more
Saint Mary's: 40.3 vs Portland: 36.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMC Score 84.0 75
PORT Score 99.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 36.3 35.0 / 43.0
Assists 15.3 / 16.7 13.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.6 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 44.7 44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 78.2 88.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 36.2 / 40.3 26.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.2 / 5.8 7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.0 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
SMC
PORT
SMC
ML
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
82% 27-6
82% 23-5
ATS
67% 22-11
62% 20-12
82% 28-6
83% 24-5
TTL
55% 18-15
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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