BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
13-6 | Road
72
TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
10-9 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
FALCONS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BGSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
BGSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
BGSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
TOL By 1-7 points
21.6%
TOL By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
83
BOWLING GREEN
Toledo
80
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
68
BOWLING GREEN
Toledo
75
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Falcons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Falcons (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
BGSU @ TOL
76 - 77
Feb 14, 2026
TOL @ BGSU
70 - 80
Jan 24, 2026
BGSU @ TOL
72 - 73
Feb 21, 2025
BGSU @ TOL
69 - 68
Jan 24, 2025
TOL @ BGSU
84 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.5% more
Bowling Green: 4.3
vs
Toledo: 2.4
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
Bowling Green: 8.8
vs
Toledo: 7.5
Rebounding (L5)
+11.4% more
Bowling Green: 34.6
vs
Toledo: 30.7
Turnovers (L5)
+15.4% more
Toledo: 11.8
vs
Bowling Green: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
83.0
72
TOL Score
80.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 38.7
32.0 / 35.0
Assists
14.9 / 14.0
12.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.4 / 4.3
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 47.7
40.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 72.6
92.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
30.7 / 34.6
29.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.5 / 8.8
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 10.2
7.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
TOL
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
BGSU
TOL
BGSU
ML
48%
16-17
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
56%
18-14
ATS
48%
16-17
72%
23-9
61%
20-13
56%
18-14
TTL
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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