SAN DIEGO STATE
AZTECSSDSU
13-5 | Road
82
UNLV
REBELSUNLV
10-8 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
100%
REBELS
0%
AZTECS
--
REBELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UNLV)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNLV -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)
SDSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
SDSU By 8-14 points
13.7%
UNLV By 1-7 points
26.2%
UNLV By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego State
75
SAN DIEGO STATE
UNLV
76
UNLV
Simulated Score
San Diego State
63
SAN DIEGO STATE
UNLV
70
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rebels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rebels
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rebels (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Rebels (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
UNLV @ SDSU
86 - 89
Jan 24, 2026
SDSU @ UNLV
82 - 71
Mar 4, 2025
SDSU @ UNLV
67 - 74
Jan 18, 2025
UNLV @ SDSU
76 - 68
Mar 14, 2024
SDSU @ UNLV
74 - 71
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.0%
UNLV: 42.2%
vs
San Diego State: 30.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
UNLV: 48.2%
vs
San Diego State: 45.7%
Steals (L5)
+28.0% more
San Diego State: 9.8
vs
UNLV: 7.1
Rebounding (L5)
+9.2% more
San Diego State: 38.0
vs
UNLV: 34.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score
75.0
82
UNLV Score
76.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.2 / 30.1
33.0 / 62.0
Assists
12.1 / 13.2
11.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.7 / 5.2
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 45.7
51.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
77.6 / 77.2
55.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 38.0
25.0 / 25.0
Steals
7.1 / 9.8
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 11.7
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
UNLV
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
UNLV
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +5.5
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
SDSU
UNLV
SDSU
ML
50%
17-17
62%
20-12
59%
20-14
72%
23-9
ATS
65%
22-12
69%
22-10
59%
20-14
72%
23-9
TTL
62%
21-13
75%
24-8
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
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