YALE
BULLDOGSYALE
14-3 | Road
77
PENNSYLVANIA
QUAKERSPENN
9-8 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
QUAKERS
100%
BULLDOGS
--
QUAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
YALE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Yale)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around YALE -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YALE)
YALE By 1-7 points
12.2%
YALE By 8-14 points
23.0%
PENN By 1-7 points
3.3%
PENN By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Yale
80
YALE
Pennsylvania
63
PENNSYLVANIA
Simulated Score
Yale
74
YALE
Pennsylvania
69
PENNSYLVANIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
PENN @ YALE
88 - 84
Feb 21, 2026
PENN @ YALE
70 - 74
Jan 24, 2026
YALE @ PENN
77 - 60
Feb 14, 2025
PENN @ YALE
71 - 72
Feb 1, 2025
YALE @ PENN
90 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+36.2% more
Yale: 17.1
vs
Pennsylvania: 10.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Yale: 49.7%
vs
Pennsylvania: 43.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Yale: 41.1%
vs
Pennsylvania: 38.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
Yale: 74.3%
vs
Pennsylvania: 71.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YALE Score
80.0
77
PENN Score
63.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 41.1
28.0 / 41.0
Assists
10.9 / 17.1
13.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.3
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 49.7
38.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
71.7 / 74.3
61.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 36.4
28.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.9 / 4.4
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 8.2
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YALE
Advantage
24-7-0
(77.4%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
PENN
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YALE
Advantage
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
PENN
--
⚖️ Over/Under
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +1.1
PENN
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PENN
YALE
PENN
YALE
ML
53%
16-14
48%
15-16
76%
22-7
58%
18-13
ATS
63%
19-11
65%
20-11
76%
22-7
58%
18-13
TTL
70%
21-9
61%
19-12
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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