MIAMI
HEATMIA
23-22 | Road
147
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
15-30 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
JAZZ
100%
HEAT
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
21.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.4%
UTAH By 1-7 points
9.3%
UTAH By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
126
MIAMI
Utah
115
UTAH
Simulated Score
Miami
106
MIAMI
Utah
112
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jazz
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Jazz (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u245.0
Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u245.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
UTAH @ MIA
115 - 111
Jan 24, 2026
MIA @ UTAH
147 - 116
Jan 9, 2025
MIA @ UTAH
97 - 92
Jan 4, 2025
UTAH @ MIA
136 - 100
Mar 2, 2024
UTAH @ MIA
120 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+16.8% more
Miami: 8.5
vs
Utah: 7.1
Turnovers (L5)
+20.9% more
Utah: 16.1
vs
Miami: 13.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
Utah: 80.0%
vs
Miami: 75.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Utah: 49.2%
vs
Miami: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
126.0
147
UTAH Score
115.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 33.1
28.0 / 40.0
Assists
30.9 / 29.1
36.0 / 35.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.1
10.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 44.7
48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
80.0 / 75.3
75.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 44.9
34.0 / 64.0
Steals
7.1 / 8.5
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 13.3
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
MIA
UTAH
MIA
ML
60%
96-63
48%
46-50
48%
40-43
59%
48-34
ATS
68%
108-51
51%
49-47
48%
40-43
59%
48-34
TTL
75%
119-39-1
59%
57-39
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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