MURRAY STATE
RACERSMUR
16-4 | Road
76
NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
12-8 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
PANTHERS
100%
RACERS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Murray State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MUR -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)
MUR By 1-7 points
18.6%
MUR By 8-14 points
26.8%
UNI By 1-7 points
6.8%
UNI By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Murray State
88
MURRAY STATE
Northern Iowa
75
NORTHERN IOWA
Simulated Score
Murray State
71
MURRAY STATE
Northern Iowa
74
NORTHERN IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Racers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Racers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
UNI @ MUR
89 - 60
Jan 24, 2026
MUR @ UNI
76 - 81
Feb 17, 2025
UNI @ MUR
74 - 67
Jan 8, 2025
MUR @ UNI
71 - 68
Feb 3, 2024
MUR @ UNI
71 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+58.1% more
Murray State: 5.8
vs
Northern Iowa: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+37.7% more
Murray State: 13.1
vs
Northern Iowa: 8.2
Turnovers (L5)
+22.1% more
Murray State: 11.1
vs
Northern Iowa: 8.6
Rebounding (L5)
+12.6% more
Murray State: 37.6
vs
Northern Iowa: 32.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MUR Score
88.0
76
UNI Score
75.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
22.1 / 31.9
47.0 / 27.0
Assists
8.2 / 13.1
14.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.4 / 5.8
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
37.8 / 46.9
57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 73.8
57.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 37.6
31.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.0 / 5.5
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 11.1
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
UNI
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
UNI
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNI
MUR
UNI
MUR
ML
51%
18-17
58%
19-14
56%
19-15
61%
20-13
ATS
49%
17-18
52%
17-16
56%
19-15
61%
20-13
TTL
69%
24-11
70%
23-10
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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