Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Eagles @ Pioneers NIA @ SHU

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

5-14  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 12:00 PM ET
William H. Pitt Center
View Odds Details →

SACRED HEART

PIONEERSSHU

8-13  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
0%
📊
PIONEERS
100%
PURPLE EAGLES --
PIONEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
SACRED HEART
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Purple EaglesNIA (-3.5) 0 PioneersSHU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Eagles Cover

27.4%

Pioneers Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHU)

NIA By 1-7 points

26.8%

NIA By 8-14 points

24.3%

SHU By 1-7 points

16.9%

SHU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
90
NIAGARA
84
SACRED HEART
Simulated Score
69
NIAGARA
72
SACRED HEART
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Purple Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pioneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pioneers (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Pioneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 NIA @ SHU 70 - 71
Jan 2, 2026 SHU @ NIA 61 - 64
Jan 25, 2025 SHU @ NIA 86 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.0% more
Niagara: 5.0 vs Sacred Heart: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +12.4% more
Niagara: 3.9 vs Sacred Heart: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +7.0%
Niagara: 75.9% vs Sacred Heart: 69.0%
Assists (L5) +41.2% more
Sacred Heart: 17.9 vs Niagara: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIA Score 90.0 70
SHU Score 84.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.6 / 33.6 37.0 / 39.0
Assists 17.9 / 12.7 17.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.9 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 41.2 46.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 75.9 69.0 / 14.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 31.6 23.0 / 33.0
Steals 4.4 / 5.0 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.1 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
SHU Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
SHU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHU
NIA
SHU
NIA
ML
61% 20-13
55% 16-13
73% 24-9
72% 21-8
ATS
76% 25-8
69% 20-9
73% 24-9
72% 21-8
TTL
58% 19-14
55% 16-13
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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