UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
7-13 | Road
66
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
11-8 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
AGGIES
0%
HIGHLANDERS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
UCR By 1-7 points
8.0%
UCR By 8-14 points
2.2%
UCD By 1-7 points
20.1%
UCD By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Riverside
67
UC RIVERSIDE
UC Davis
79
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
UC Riverside
71
UC RIVERSIDE
UC Davis
75
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UCD @ UCR
78 - 73
Jan 24, 2026
UCR @ UCD
66 - 74
Feb 13, 2025
UCR @ UCD
74 - 75
Jan 30, 2025
UCD @ UCR
58 - 60
Feb 17, 2024
UCR @ UCD
67 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+62.6% more
UC Davis: 7.2
vs
UC Riverside: 4.4
Assists (L5)
+35.0% more
UC Davis: 16.4
vs
UC Riverside: 12.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.0%
UC Davis: 37.3%
vs
UC Riverside: 29.3%
Blocks (L5)
+33.1% more
UC Riverside: 4.2
vs
UC Davis: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCR Score
67.0
66
UCD Score
79.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.3 / 29.3
44.0 / 32.0
Assists
16.4 / 12.1
18.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.2
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.0 / 40.4
50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
71.4 / 82.9
68.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 33.8
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.2 / 4.4
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 13.6
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
UCR
UCD
UCR
ML
58%
19-14
66%
21-11
64%
21-12
75%
24-8
ATS
61%
20-13
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
75%
24-8
TTL
61%
20-13
66%
21-11
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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