Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Bobcats WEB @ MTST

WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

10-10  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Worthington Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

12-8  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
WILDCATS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
195.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Montana State)
WildcatsWEB (-3.5) 0 BobcatsMTST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

0.0%

Bobcats Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTST -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)

WEB By 1-7 points

0.0%

WEB By 8-14 points

0.0%

MTST By 1-7 points

0.1%

MTST By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
79
WEBER STATE
116
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
73
WEBER STATE
67
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bobcats (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Wildcats (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 195.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 MTST @ WEB 79 - 82
Jan 24, 2026 WEB @ MTST 88 - 91
Feb 13, 2025 WEB @ MTST 66 - 74
Jan 18, 2025 MTST @ WEB 80 - 71
Mar 11, 2024 MTST @ WEB 91 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.7% more
Montana State: 2.2 vs Weber State: 1.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.4%
Montana State: 42.1% vs Weber State: 32.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +8.0%
Montana State: 75.2% vs Weber State: 67.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Montana State: 45.2% vs Weber State: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WEB Score 79.0 88
MTST Score 116.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.1 / 32.7 41.0 / 58.0
Assists 10.4 / 12.3 10.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.2 / 1.8 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 43.5 52.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 67.2 90.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 33.5 30.0 / 22.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.1 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.5 / 12.1 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WEB
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WEB
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
WEB
MTST
WEB
ML
52% 16-15
73% 22-8
67% 20-10
73% 22-8
ATS
52% 16-15
63% 19-11
67% 20-10
74% 23-8
TTL
65% 20-11
83% 25-5
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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