Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bengals @ Grizzlies IDST @ MONT

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

10-10  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 6:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

11-9  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
BENGALS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-52.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +52.0 points (Montana)
BengalsIDST (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

0.0%

Grizzlies Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONT -52.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

IDST By 1-7 points

0.0%

IDST By 8-14 points

0.0%

MONT By 1-7 points

0.0%

MONT By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
44
IDAHO STATE
96
MONTANA
Simulated Score
68
IDAHO STATE
75
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -52.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 MONT @ IDST 69 - 73
Jan 24, 2026 IDST @ MONT 60 - 69
Feb 13, 2025 IDST @ MONT 68 - 81
Jan 18, 2025 MONT @ IDST 62 - 86
Mar 12, 2024 IDST @ MONT 58 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +70.1% more
Montana: 17.8 vs Idaho State: 10.5
Turnovers (L5) +32.2% more
Montana: 12.6 vs Idaho State: 9.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.1%
Montana: 44.3% vs Idaho State: 30.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +12.5%
Montana: 56.3% vs Idaho State: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDST Score 44.0 60
MONT Score 96.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.3 / 30.2 32.0 / 32.0
Assists 17.8 / 10.5 16.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.8 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 56.3 / 43.8 47.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 83.0 / 74.5 89.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 31.9 34.0 / 37.0
Steals 4.8 / 4.3 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 9.5 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
MONT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
IDST
MONT
IDST
ML
39% 13-20
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
72% 23-9
ATS
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
72% 23-9
TTL
59% 19-13-1
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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