Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Terriers MER @ WOF

MERCER

BEARSMER

13-7  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 11:00 AM ET
Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium
View Odds Details →

WOFFORD

TERRIERSWOF

13-7  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
TERRIERS
0%
BEARS --
TERRIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WOFFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Wofford)
BearsMER (-3.5) 0 TerriersWOF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

42.1%

Terriers Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WOF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WOF)

MER By 1-7 points

23.0%

MER By 8-14 points

12.2%

WOF By 1-7 points

26.8%

WOF By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
89
MERCER
91
WOFFORD
Simulated Score
68
MERCER
72
WOFFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Terriers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Terriers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Terriers (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Terriers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 MER @ WOF 77 - 80
Jan 10, 2026 WOF @ MER 97 - 109
Feb 8, 2025 WOF @ MER 77 - 66
Jan 18, 2025 MER @ WOF 49 - 69
Feb 14, 2024 WOF @ MER 73 - 60
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Wofford: 40.6% vs Mercer: 34.8%
Turnovers (L5) +28.7% more
Mercer: 11.2 vs Wofford: 8.0
Steals (L5) +27.7% more
Mercer: 7.7 vs Wofford: 5.6
Rebounding (L5) +25.9% more
Mercer: 40.3 vs Wofford: 29.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MER Score 89.0 77
WOF Score 91.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 34.8 44.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.7 / 14.2 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.3 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.7 / 51.3 47.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 74.4 80.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 40.3 40.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.6 / 7.7 1.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 11.2 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
WOF
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
WOF
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
WOF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WOF
MER
WOF
MER
ML
39% 12-19
55% 17-14
61% 19-12
71% 22-9
ATS
58% 18-13
58% 18-13
61% 19-12
71% 22-9
TTL
65% 20-11
61% 19-12
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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