Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Storm @ Musketeers SJU @ XAV

ST. JOHN'S

RED STORMSJU

14-5  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 1:30 PM ET
Cintas Center
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

11-8  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
0%
📊
MUSKETEERS
100%
RED STORM --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (St. John's)
Red StormSJU (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Storm Cover

84.1%

Musketeers Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)

SJU By 1-7 points

23.0%

SJU By 8-14 points

27.2%

XAV By 1-7 points

10.7%

XAV By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
ST. JOHN'S
61
XAVIER
Simulated Score
70
ST. JOHN'S
78
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Storm Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Musketeers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Storm (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Musketeers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 9, 2026 XAV @ SJU 82 - 87
Jan 24, 2026 SJU @ XAV 88 - 83
Jan 22, 2025 XAV @ SJU 71 - 79
Jan 7, 2025 SJU @ XAV 82 - 72
Jan 31, 2024 SJU @ XAV 77 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +24.5% more
St. John's: 8.2 vs Xavier: 6.2
Turnovers (L5) +11.4% more
St. John's: 10.3 vs Xavier: 9.1
Assists (L5) +36.1% more
Xavier: 20.9 vs St. John's: 15.3
Blocks (L5) +27.1% more
Xavier: 4.4 vs St. John's: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJU Score 71.0 88
XAV Score 61.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 29.1 43.0 / 39.0
Assists 20.9 / 15.3 20.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.4 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 44.7 48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 72.7 84.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 37.5 32.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.2 / 8.2 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 10.3 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU Advantage
22-13-1 (62.9%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
XAV
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9% Total +/-: -3.6
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
SJU
XAV
SJU
ML
58% 19-14
62% 18-11
72% 23-9
62% 18-11
ATS
73% 24-9
66% 19-10
72% 23-9
62% 18-11
TTL
39% 13-20
59% 17-12
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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