Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flyers @ Hawks DAY @ JOES

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

14-5  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 2:00 PM ET
Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT JOSEPH'S

HAWKSJOES

11-8  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
HAWKS
0%
FLYERS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
FlyersDAY (-3.5) 0 HawksJOES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

2.3%

Hawks Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JOES -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)

DAY By 1-7 points

1.7%

DAY By 8-14 points

0.3%

JOES By 1-7 points

8.0%

JOES By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
61
DAYTON
81
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Simulated Score
76
DAYTON
72
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Flyers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 DAY @ JOES 74 - 81
Mar 14, 2025 JOES @ DAY 73 - 68
Jan 24, 2025 JOES @ DAY 72 - 77
Feb 6, 2024 DAY @ JOES 94 - 79
Mar 9, 2023 JOES @ DAY 54 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.4% more
Saint Joseph's: 5.4 vs Dayton: 4.2
Turnovers (L5) +23.9% more
Saint Joseph's: 13.7 vs Dayton: 11.1
Assists (L5) +14.2% more
Saint Joseph's: 14.5 vs Dayton: 12.7
Rebounding (L5) +13.5% more
Saint Joseph's: 36.7 vs Dayton: 32.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAY Score 61.0 74
JOES Score 81.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 28.6 32.0 / 39.0
Assists 14.5 / 12.7 13.0 / 16.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.2 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 43.3 42.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 77.7 81.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 32.3 38.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.5 / 10.1 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 11.1 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
JOES
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
JOES Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JOES
DAY
JOES
DAY
ML
51% 18-17
65% 24-13
61% 20-13
64% 23-13
ATS
60% 21-14
68% 25-12
61% 20-13
64% 23-13
TTL
54% 19-16
57% 21-16
100% 33-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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