NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
14-5 | Road
73
NEW MEXICO
LOBOSUNM
15-4 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
100%
LOBOS
0%
WOLF PACK
--
LOBOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New Mexico)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)
NEV By 1-7 points
23.0%
NEV By 8-14 points
12.2%
UNM By 1-7 points
26.8%
UNM By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
57
NEVADA
New Mexico
59
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
Nevada
73
NEVADA
New Mexico
78
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lobos
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lobos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lobos (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Lobos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
UNM @ NEV
60 - 67
Jan 24, 2026
NEV @ UNM
73 - 80
Mar 4, 2025
UNM @ NEV
71 - 67
Jan 3, 2025
NEV @ UNM
81 - 82
Feb 13, 2024
UNM @ NEV
83 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+105.1% more
New Mexico: 11.7
vs
Nevada: 5.7
Turnovers (L5)
+21.1% more
New Mexico: 11.6
vs
Nevada: 9.6
Blocks (L5)
+20.7% more
Nevada: 3.7
vs
New Mexico: 3.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.4%
Nevada: 50.3%
vs
New Mexico: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
57.0
73
UNM Score
59.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 50.3
43.0 / 26.0
Assists
15.8 / 16.5
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.7
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 48.1
39.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 82.0
74.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 36.1
38.0 / 42.0
Steals
11.7 / 5.7
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 9.6
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
UNM
Advantage
26-11-0
(70.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
UNM
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3%
Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
NEV
UNM
NEV
ML
57%
21-16
62%
23-14
74%
25-9
73%
27-10
ATS
57%
21-16
73%
27-10
74%
25-9
73%
27-10
TTL
41%
15-22
49%
18-19
100%
34-0
100%
37-0
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