Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dons @ Bulldogs SF @ GONZ

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

13-8  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 8:00 PM ET
McCarthey Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

20-1  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
DONS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
DONS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
95.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DonsSF (-3.5) 0 BulldogsGONZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dons Cover

18.4%

Bulldogs Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GONZ +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

SF By 1-7 points

24.3%

SF By 8-14 points

26.8%

GONZ By 1-7 points

12.2%

GONZ By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
52
SAN FRANCISCO
43
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
70
SAN FRANCISCO
82
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 95.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 GONZ @ SF 80 - 59
Jan 24, 2026 SF @ GONZ 66 - 68
Mar 10, 2025 SF @ GONZ 76 - 85
Mar 1, 2025 GONZ @ SF 95 - 75
Feb 13, 2025 SF @ GONZ 77 - 88
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
San Francisco: 42.4% vs Gonzaga: 32.0%
Assists (L5) +9.1% more
San Francisco: 15.0 vs Gonzaga: 13.7
Steals (L5) +84.1% more
Gonzaga: 10.6 vs San Francisco: 5.8
Blocks (L5) +24.6% more
Gonzaga: 2.8 vs San Francisco: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 52.0 66
GONZ Score 43.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 42.4 17.0 / 50.0
Assists 13.7 / 15.0 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.2 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 46.5 44.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 65.2 50.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 35.7 37.0 / 41.0
Steals 10.6 / 5.8 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.0 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
SF
GONZ
SF
ML
71% 25-10
39% 13-20
69% 20-9
64% 21-12
ATS
69% 24-11
42% 14-19
69% 20-9
64% 21-12
TTL
57% 20-15
73% 24-9
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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