Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Aggies FIU @ NMSU

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

PANTHERSFIU

9-10  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 2:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

10-8  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
AGGIES
100%
PANTHERS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Florida International)
PanthersFIU (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

90.3%

Aggies Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FIU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

FIU By 1-7 points

18.6%

FIU By 8-14 points

26.8%

NMSU By 1-7 points

6.8%

NMSU By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
89
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
76
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
67
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
74
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 FIU @ NMSU 81 - 78
Jan 2, 2026 NMSU @ FIU 74 - 89
Feb 15, 2025 FIU @ NMSU 48 - 76
Jan 16, 2025 NMSU @ FIU 59 - 52
Mar 9, 2024 FIU @ NMSU 70 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +48.2% more
Florida International: 13.4 vs New Mexico State: 7.0
Steals (L5) +44.1% more
Florida International: 9.3 vs New Mexico State: 5.2
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Florida International: 36.4 vs New Mexico State: 33.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Florida International: 39.8% vs New Mexico State: 36.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 89.0 81
NMSU Score 76.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 39.8 37.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.1 / 11.7 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.4 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 43.2 35.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 65.7 67.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 36.4 55.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.2 / 9.3 4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 7.0 / 13.4 15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
15-13-1
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.8
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
FIU
NMSU
FIU
ML
61% 19-12
58% 18-13
67% 20-10
65% 20-11
ATS
65% 20-11
52% 16-15
67% 20-10
65% 20-11
TTL
45% 14-17
65% 20-11
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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