NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
14-7 | Road
80
WRIGHT STATE
RAIDERSWRST
12-8 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
0%
RAIDERS
100%
NORSE
--
RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NKU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)
NKU By 1-7 points
2.2%
NKU By 8-14 points
8.0%
WRST By 1-7 points
0.3%
WRST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Kentucky
90
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Wright State
63
WRIGHT STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Kentucky
74
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Wright State
78
WRIGHT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Norse
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Norse (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Raiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
NKU @ WRST
90 - 103
Feb 28, 2026
WRST @ NKU
92 - 91
Jan 24, 2026
NKU @ WRST
80 - 88
Feb 21, 2025
NKU @ WRST
80 - 76
Jan 18, 2025
WRST @ NKU
78 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.6% more
Northern Kentucky: 7.3
vs
Wright State: 5.5
Assists (L5)
+18.2% more
Northern Kentucky: 16.9
vs
Wright State: 13.8
Blocks (L5)
+38.7% more
Wright State: 5.3
vs
Northern Kentucky: 3.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
Wright State: 39.3%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 33.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NKU Score
90.0
80
WRST Score
63.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 33.1
36.0 / 24.0
Assists
13.8 / 16.9
8.0 / 7.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.8
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 46.8
50.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 75.1
81.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 36.3
33.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.5 / 7.3
11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 10.6
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
WRST
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
WRST
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WRST
NKU
WRST
NKU
ML
37%
13-22
53%
18-16
63%
22-13
65%
22-12
ATS
46%
16-19
56%
19-15
63%
22-13
65%
22-12
TTL
63%
22-13
68%
23-11
100%
35-0
100%
34-0
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