TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
12-7 | Road
97
BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
11-7 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
0%
BEARS
100%
HORNED FROGS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (TCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TCU -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)
TCU By 1-7 points
4.8%
TCU By 8-14 points
13.7%
BAY By 1-7 points
0.8%
BAY By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
TCU
93
TCU
Baylor
70
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
TCU
70
TCU
Baylor
75
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Horned Frogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Horned Frogs (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
TCU @ BAY
97 - 90
Jan 3, 2026
BAY @ TCU
63 - 69
Mar 4, 2025
BAY @ TCU
61 - 58
Jan 19, 2025
TCU @ BAY
74 - 71
Feb 26, 2024
BAY @ TCU
62 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.5% more
TCU: 5.4
vs
Baylor: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+20.5% more
TCU: 17.4
vs
Baylor: 13.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Baylor: 36.7%
vs
TCU: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TCU Score
93.0
97
BAY Score
70.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 31.0
31.0 / 46.0
Assists
13.8 / 17.4
15.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.9 / 5.4
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 46.0
50.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
63.7 / 63.0
72.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 36.4
37.0 / 24.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.6
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 11.3
18.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
TCU
BAY
TCU
ML
58%
19-14
74%
26-9
53%
17-15
63%
19-11
ATS
58%
19-14
74%
26-9
53%
17-15
63%
19-11
TTL
45%
15-18
66%
23-12
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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