Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hokies @ Cardinals VT @ LOU

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

15-5  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 2:15 PM ET
KFC Yum! Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

13-5  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
HOKIES
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
HOKIES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Louisville)
HokiesVT (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hokies Cover

2.9%

Cardinals Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

VT By 1-7 points

2.2%

VT By 8-14 points

0.4%

LOU By 1-7 points

9.3%

LOU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
71
VIRGINIA TECH
90
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
71
VIRGINIA TECH
76
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 VT @ LOU 71 - 85
Feb 25, 2025 LOU @ VT 71 - 66
Mar 5, 2024 VT @ LOU 80 - 64
Dec 3, 2023 LOU @ VT 68 - 75
Feb 28, 2023 VT @ LOU 71 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +48.3% more
Louisville: 17.3 vs Virginia Tech: 11.6
Rebounding (L5) +10.9% more
Louisville: 37.8 vs Virginia Tech: 34.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Louisville: 36.7% vs Virginia Tech: 29.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Louisville: 49.2% vs Virginia Tech: 46.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 71.0 71
LOU Score 90.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 29.6 39.0 / 53.0
Assists 17.3 / 11.6 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.6 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 46.0 47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 75.4 77.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 34.1 44.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.1 / 7.3 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 10.9 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
VT
LOU
VT
ML
63% 22-13
53% 17-15
71% 24-10
72% 23-9
ATS
71% 25-10
59% 19-13
71% 24-10
72% 23-9
TTL
63% 22-13
69% 22-10
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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