CHATTANOOGA
MOCSUTC
9-11 | Road
64
SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
9-11 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
MOCS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
MOCS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-49.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +49.0 points (Samford)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAM -49.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)
UTC By 1-7 points
0.0%
UTC By 8-14 points
0.0%
SAM By 1-7 points
0.0%
SAM By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chattanooga
54
CHATTANOOGA
Samford
103
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
Chattanooga
83
CHATTANOOGA
Samford
85
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -49.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.0
Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u152.0
Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
UTC @ SAM
64 - 75
Jan 10, 2026
SAM @ UTC
79 - 88
Feb 12, 2025
UTC @ SAM
82 - 68
Jan 23, 2025
SAM @ UTC
73 - 69
Feb 3, 2024
SAM @ UTC
78 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.3% more
Samford: 17.4
vs
Chattanooga: 13.9
Turnovers (L5)
+23.8% more
Chattanooga: 10.1
vs
Samford: 7.7
Steals (L5)
+18.6% more
Chattanooga: 5.3
vs
Samford: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.6%
Chattanooga: 86.1%
vs
Samford: 76.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTC Score
54.0
64
SAM Score
103.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 40.1
34.0 / 38.0
Assists
17.4 / 13.9
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.8
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 46.4
40.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 86.1
64.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
29.9 / 31.6
37.0 / 34.0
Steals
4.3 / 5.3
6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
7.7 / 10.1
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTC
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
SAM
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTC
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
SAM
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.8
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
UTC
SAM
UTC
ML
65%
20-11
48%
15-16
68%
21-10
53%
16-14
ATS
68%
21-10
52%
16-15
68%
21-10
55%
17-14
TTL
35%
11-20
77%
24-7
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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