BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
28-17-5 | Road
5
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
27-18-5 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Matthew Schaefer
#48 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Matthew Schaefer | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00
GAA
--
1.000
Save %
--
1
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
SABRES
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
NYI By 1 goal
19.7%
NYI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
New York
3
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Islanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Islanders (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
NYI @ BUF
3 - 4
Jan 24, 2026
BUF @ NYI
5 - 0
Dec 20, 2025
NYI @ BUF
2 - 3
Dec 23, 2024
BUF @ NYI
7 - 1
Nov 30, 2024
BUF @ NYI
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.8% more
New York: 27.2
vs
Buffalo: 22.5
Power Play % (L5)
+14.6%
New York: 22.5%
vs
Buffalo: 7.9%
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.6%
New York: 49.8%
vs
Buffalo: 42.2%
Hits (L5)
+35.1% more
Buffalo: 22.3
vs
New York: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.0
5
NYI Score
3.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.4 / 15.9
13.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
49.8 / 42.2
74.0 / 26.0
Hits
14.5 / 22.3
24.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
2246.0 / 790.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.2 / 22.5
26.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 4.8
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
BUF
NYI
BUF
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
TTL
100%
2-0-1
33%
1-2
100%
2-0-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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