Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Patriots @ Rams GMU @ URI

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

18-1  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 2:00 PM ET
Thomas M. Ryan Center
View Odds Details →

RHODE ISLAND

RAMSURI

11-8  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
PATRIOTS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
RHODE ISLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Rhode Island)
PatriotsGMU (-3.5) 0 RamsURI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

11.5%

Rams Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around URI -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (URI)

GMU By 1-7 points

8.0%

GMU By 8-14 points

2.2%

URI By 1-7 points

20.1%

URI By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
59
GEORGE MASON
71
RHODE ISLAND
Simulated Score
67
GEORGE MASON
75
RHODE ISLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 GMU @ URI 65 - 74
Jan 3, 2026 URI @ GMU 50 - 61
Feb 8, 2025 URI @ GMU 67 - 82
Jan 4, 2025 GMU @ URI 59 - 62
Mar 6, 2024 GMU @ URI 69 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.8% more
Rhode Island: 13.5 vs George Mason: 9.2
Steals (L5) +42.2% more
Rhode Island: 7.4 vs George Mason: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +20.6% more
Rhode Island: 2.9 vs George Mason: 2.4
Assists (L5) +42.9% more
George Mason: 16.1 vs Rhode Island: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GMU Score 59.0 65
URI Score 71.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.6 / 32.9 32.0 / 25.0
Assists 9.2 / 16.1 11.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.4 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 49.2 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 68.4 / 72.5 76.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 32.9 26.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.2 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 9.2 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
URI
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
URI
13-18-1 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
URI
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
URI
GMU
URI
GMU
ML
62% 20-12
55% 18-15
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
ATS
56% 18-14
55% 18-15
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
TTL
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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