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NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

13-6  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Petersen Events Center
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

8-11  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
WOLFPACK --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (NC State)
WolfpackNCSU (-3.5) 0 PanthersPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolfpack Cover

100.0%

Panthers Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NCSU -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

NCSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NCSU By 8-14 points

0.4%

PITT By 1-7 points

0.0%

PITT By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
96
NC STATE
55
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
70
NC STATE
72
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolfpack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolfpack (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 PITT @ NCSU 88 - 98
Jan 24, 2026 NCSU @ PITT 81 - 72
Mar 5, 2025 PITT @ NCSU 63 - 71
Mar 9, 2024 NCSU @ PITT 73 - 81
Feb 7, 2024 PITT @ NCSU 67 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.8% more
NC State: 9.6 vs Pittsburgh: 7.2
Blocks (L5) +23.3% more
NC State: 3.5 vs Pittsburgh: 2.7
Assists (L5) +13.2% more
NC State: 15.9 vs Pittsburgh: 13.8
Free Throw % (L5) +12.4%
NC State: 75.1% vs Pittsburgh: 62.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 96.0 81
PITT Score 55.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 39.8 38.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.8 / 15.9 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.5 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 44.2 37.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 62.6 / 75.1 44.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 33.5 52.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.2 / 9.6 1.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 8.3 14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
PITT Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
NCSU
PITT
NCSU
ML
58% 19-14
59% 20-14
45% 15-18
55% 18-15
ATS
64% 21-12
71% 24-10
45% 15-18
55% 18-15
TTL
61% 20-13
71% 24-10
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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