NORTHERN COLORADO
BEARSUNCO
11-9 | Road
77
NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
6-14 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
BEARS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
NORTHERN COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Northern Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCO -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCO)
UNCO By 1-7 points
2.2%
UNCO By 8-14 points
8.0%
NAU By 1-7 points
0.3%
NAU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Colorado
97
NORTHERN COLORADO
Northern Arizona
70
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Northern Colorado
70
NORTHERN COLORADO
Northern Arizona
72
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
NAU @ UNCO
77 - 78
Jan 24, 2026
UNCO @ NAU
77 - 81
Mar 1, 2025
UNCO @ NAU
83 - 73
Feb 1, 2025
NAU @ UNCO
69 - 87
Mar 4, 2024
UNCO @ NAU
82 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+32.0% more
Northern Colorado: 38.3
vs
Northern Arizona: 26.0
Turnovers (L5)
+16.2% more
Northern Colorado: 12.3
vs
Northern Arizona: 10.3
Assists (L5)
+13.4% more
Northern Colorado: 16.3
vs
Northern Arizona: 14.1
Blocks (L5)
+12.2% more
Northern Colorado: 2.0
vs
Northern Arizona: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score
97.0
77
NAU Score
70.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 31.7
56.0 / 45.0
Assists
14.1 / 16.3
16.0 / 16.0
Blocks
1.7 / 2.0
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 46.2
59.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
68.0 / 62.4
74.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
26.0 / 38.3
20.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.0 / 4.6
7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 12.3
8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
NAU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.7
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
UNCO
NAU
UNCO
ML
62%
20-12
50%
16-16
81%
26-6
66%
21-11
ATS
62%
20-12
53%
17-15
81%
26-6
66%
21-11
TTL
66%
21-11
50%
16-16
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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