Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Lions @ Jaguars UAPB @ SOU

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

GOLDEN LIONSUAPB

6-13  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 6:00 PM ET
F.G. Clark Activity Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

7-11  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
GOLDEN LIONS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
194.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
Golden LionsUAPB (-3.5) 0 JaguarsSOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Lions Cover

99.9%

Jaguars Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UAPB -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAPB)

UAPB By 1-7 points

1.1%

UAPB By 8-14 points

4.8%

SOU By 1-7 points

0.1%

SOU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
112
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
82
SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
65
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
72
SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Lions (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 194.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UAPB @ SOU 81 - 84
Jan 24, 2026 UAPB @ SOU 75 - 74
Jan 25, 2025 SOU @ UAPB 83 - 67
Jan 27, 2024 UAPB @ SOU 66 - 80
Jan 21, 2023 SOU @ UAPB 55 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +27.1% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 16.2 vs Southern: 11.8
Turnovers (L5) +15.1% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 14.4 vs Southern: 12.2
Free Throw % (L5) +6.6%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 73.5% vs Southern: 66.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 46.7% vs Southern: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 112.0 75
SOU Score 82.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 34.7 22.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.8 / 16.2 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.4 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 46.7 41.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 66.9 / 73.5 77.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 31.8 41.0 / 27.0
Steals 12.6 / 8.1 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 14.4 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB Advantage
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.2
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SOU
UAPB
SOU
UAPB
ML
67% 22-11
74% 23-8
70% 21-9
73% 19-7
ATS
64% 21-12
73% 22-8-1
70% 21-9
73% 19-7
TTL
42% 14-19
68% 21-10
100% 30-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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