VILLANOVA
WILDCATSVILL
15-4 | Road
67
UCONN
HUSKIESCONN
18-1 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
HUSKIES
100%
WILDCATS
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CONN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)
VILL By 1-7 points
26.2%
VILL By 8-14 points
16.9%
CONN By 1-7 points
24.3%
CONN By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Villanova
70
VILLANOVA
UConn
69
UCONN
Simulated Score
Villanova
70
VILLANOVA
UConn
75
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Huskies (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Huskies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o136.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
CONN @ VILL
73 - 63
Jan 24, 2026
VILL @ CONN
67 - 75
Mar 13, 2025
VILL @ CONN
56 - 73
Feb 18, 2025
VILL @ CONN
59 - 66
Jan 8, 2025
CONN @ VILL
66 - 68
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Villanova: 34.7%
vs
UConn: 28.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Villanova: 76.2%
vs
UConn: 72.0%
Blocks (L5)
+227.5% more
UConn: 5.6
vs
Villanova: 1.7
Assists (L5)
+18.4% more
UConn: 15.4
vs
Villanova: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VILL Score
70.0
67
CONN Score
69.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.2 / 34.7
36.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.4 / 13.0
17.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.6 / 1.7
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 45.7
41.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
72.0 / 76.2
77.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 31.7
42.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.6 / 8.0
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 10.4
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VILL
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
CONN
Advantage
34-6-0
(85.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VILL
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
CONN
18-22-0
(45.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +1.7
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
VILL
CONN
VILL
ML
76%
29-9
44%
14-18
66%
23-12
72%
23-9
ATS
74%
28-10
56%
18-14
66%
23-12
72%
23-9
TTL
50%
19-19
41%
13-19
100%
35-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
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Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career