TROY
TROJANSTROY
14-6 | Road
83
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
EAGLESGASO
13-8 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
EAGLES
0%
TROJANS
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Georgia Southern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GASO -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)
TROY By 1-7 points
1.7%
TROY By 8-14 points
0.3%
GASO By 1-7 points
8.0%
GASO By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
80
TROY
Georgia Southern
100
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
Troy
70
TROY
Georgia Southern
78
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Eagles (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o162.5
Loss
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
GASO @ TROY
61 - 77
Jan 24, 2026
TROY @ GASO
83 - 78
Jan 30, 2025
GASO @ TROY
74 - 81
Feb 1, 2024
TROY @ GASO
84 - 63
Feb 5, 2022
TROY @ GASO
61 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.9% more
Georgia Southern: 4.0
vs
Troy: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+46.6% more
Troy: 16.8
vs
Georgia Southern: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.5%
Troy: 76.1%
vs
Georgia Southern: 66.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
Troy: 35.8%
vs
Georgia Southern: 26.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
80.0
83
GASO Score
100.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.5 / 35.8
34.0 / 36.0
Assists
9.0 / 16.8
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.0
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.2 / 46.4
48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
66.6 / 76.1
76.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 40.4
26.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.6 / 8.2
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 10.5
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
GASO
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
GASO
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
TROY
GASO
TROY
ML
56%
20-16
59%
20-14
58%
19-14
61%
20-13
ATS
64%
23-13
65%
22-12
58%
19-14
61%
20-13
TTL
61%
22-14
56%
19-15
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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