Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Wildcats WVU @ ARIZ

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

13-6  |  Road

53
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 2:00 PM ET
McKale Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

19-0  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Arizona)
MountaineersWVU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

27.4%

Wildcats Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

WVU By 1-7 points

16.9%

WVU By 8-14 points

6.8%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

26.8%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
WEST VIRGINIA
80
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
72
WEST VIRGINIA
81
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 WVU @ ARIZ 53 - 88
Jan 7, 2025 ARIZ @ WVU 75 - 56
Nov 29, 2024 ARIZ @ WVU 76 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +193.3% more
Arizona: 3.5 vs West Virginia: 1.2
Steals (L5) +37.8% more
Arizona: 7.3 vs West Virginia: 5.3
Rebounding (L5) +29.0% more
Arizona: 42.5 vs West Virginia: 33.0
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
Arizona: 16.1 vs West Virginia: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 74.0 53
ARIZ Score 80.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.9 / 38.8 43.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.1 / 13.1 20.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.5 / 1.2 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 47.9 53.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 67.9 70.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 42.5 / 33.0 43.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.3 10.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 11.9 5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
WVU
ARIZ
WVU
ML
67% 26-13
63% 22-13
68% 23-11
76% 26-8
ATS
74% 29-10
60% 21-14
68% 23-11
76% 26-8
TTL
56% 22-17
40% 14-21
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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