Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Commodores @ Bulldogs VAN @ MSST

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

16-3  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

10-9  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
COMMODORES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Vanderbilt)
CommodoresVAN (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commodores Cover

78.8%

Bulldogs Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

VAN By 1-7 points

25.3%

VAN By 8-14 points

26.2%

MSST By 1-7 points

13.7%

MSST By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
90
VANDERBILT
82
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
60
VANDERBILT
72
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Commodores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Commodores (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 VAN @ MSST 88 - 56
Jan 7, 2025 MSST @ VAN 76 - 64
Jan 20, 2024 VAN @ MSST 55 - 68
Mar 4, 2023 MSST @ VAN 72 - 77
Feb 26, 2022 VAN @ MSST 69 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.7% more
Vanderbilt: 6.0 vs Mississippi State: 3.7
Assists (L5) +16.0% more
Vanderbilt: 13.7 vs Mississippi State: 11.5
Free Throw % (L5) +11.4%
Vanderbilt: 79.0% vs Mississippi State: 67.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Vanderbilt: 33.9% vs Mississippi State: 24.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 90.0 88
MSST Score 82.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.4 / 33.9 19.0 / 32.0
Assists 11.5 / 13.7 7.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.1 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 43.5 34.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 79.0 65.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 41.1 / 29.4 34.0 / 36.0
Steals 3.7 / 6.0 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 8.3 17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
VAN
MSST
VAN
ML
66% 21-11
69% 25-11
55% 17-14
56% 18-14
ATS
56% 18-14
78% 28-8
55% 17-14
56% 18-14
TTL
59% 19-13
58% 21-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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