TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
11-10 | Road
57
JAMES MADISON
DUKESJMU
9-11 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
DUKES
100%
BOBCATS
--
DUKES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JMU +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)
TXST By 1-7 points
27.2%
TXST By 8-14 points
23.0%
JMU By 1-7 points
18.6%
JMU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas State
95
TEXAS STATE
James Madison
90
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
Texas State
68
TEXAS STATE
James Madison
75
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dukes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dukes (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Dukes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
TXST @ JMU
57 - 82
Feb 28, 2025
JMU @ TXST
93 - 102
Mar 10, 2024
TXST @ JMU
68 - 73
Dec 30, 2023
TXST @ JMU
65 - 82
Jan 5, 2023
TXST @ JMU
63 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+44.1% more
Texas State: 7.8
vs
James Madison: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Texas State: 78.7%
vs
James Madison: 71.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Texas State: 44.6%
vs
James Madison: 42.3%
Blocks (L5)
+137.0% more
James Madison: 4.6
vs
Texas State: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXST Score
95.0
57
JMU Score
90.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 26.9
44.0 / 24.0
Assists
13.9 / 8.8
20.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.6 / 1.9
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 44.6
53.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
71.0 / 78.7
73.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 35.9
39.0 / 28.0
Steals
4.3 / 7.8
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 11.5
11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
JMU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
JMU
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
TXST
JMU
TXST
ML
64%
21-12
42%
13-18
66%
21-11
83%
25-5
ATS
67%
22-11
48%
15-16
66%
21-11
84%
26-5
TTL
67%
22-11
65%
20-11
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
