MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
8-11 | Road
48
MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
17-2 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
100%
SPARTANS
0%
TERRAPINS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
MD By 1-7 points
21.6%
MD By 8-14 points
10.7%
MSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
MSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
81
MARYLAND
Michigan State
84
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
Maryland
73
MARYLAND
Michigan State
68
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Terrapins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (+18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Terrapins (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
MD @ MSU
48 - 91
Feb 26, 2025
MSU @ MD
58 - 55
Feb 3, 2024
MD @ MSU
54 - 63
Jan 21, 2024
MSU @ MD
61 - 59
Feb 7, 2023
MD @ MSU
58 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+107.3% more
Michigan State: 4.5
vs
Maryland: 2.2
Assists (L5)
+60.0% more
Michigan State: 16.2
vs
Maryland: 10.1
Steals (L5)
+23.4% more
Michigan State: 5.1
vs
Maryland: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+22.6% more
Michigan State: 11.6
vs
Maryland: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
81.0
48
MSU Score
84.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 34.7
47.0 / 23.0
Assists
16.2 / 10.1
25.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.5 / 2.2
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
51.2 / 42.4
61.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
66.9 / 64.2
74.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 34.3
35.0 / 24.0
Steals
5.1 / 4.1
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 9.5
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
MSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
MSU
Advantage
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
MD
MSU
MD
ML
71%
25-10
70%
23-10
61%
20-13
67%
22-11
ATS
71%
25-10
64%
21-12
61%
20-13
67%
22-11
TTL
49%
17-18
64%
21-12
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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