Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buccaneers @ Lancers CHSO @ LONG

CHARLESTON SOUTHERN

BUCCANEERSCHSO

11-10  |  Road

79
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Joan Perry Brock Center
View Odds Details →

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

11-10  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
LANCERS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
189.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
LONGWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Longwood)
BuccaneersCHSO (-3.5) 0 LancersLONG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

4.5%

Lancers Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LONG -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LONG)

CHSO By 1-7 points

3.3%

CHSO By 8-14 points

0.6%

LONG By 1-7 points

12.2%

LONG By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
103
LONGWOOD
Simulated Score
68
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
72
LONGWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lancers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Win
Proj Total: 189.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 LONG @ CHSO 107 - 96
Jan 23, 2026 CHSO @ LONG 79 - 81
Feb 1, 2025 LONG @ CHSO 85 - 89
Jan 4, 2025 CHSO @ LONG 78 - 83
Feb 3, 2024 LONG @ CHSO 77 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +141.4% more
Longwood: 9.3 vs Charleston Southern: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5) +23.7%
Longwood: 74.8% vs Charleston Southern: 51.1%
Turnovers (L5) +9.5% more
Longwood: 12.7 vs Charleston Southern: 11.6
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Longwood: 50.7% vs Charleston Southern: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHSO Score 86.0 79
LONG Score 103.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 35.7 33.0 / 37.0
Assists 15.8 / 15.9 7.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.5 / 5.8 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 47.0 45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 51.1 82.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 39.3 37.0 / 40.0
Steals 9.3 / 3.8 16.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 11.6 17.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHSO
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +2.0
LONG Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHSO Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +2.0
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CHSO
19-10-0
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5% Total +/-: +4.6
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LONG
CHSO
LONG
CHSO
ML
65% 20-11
43% 13-17
68% 21-10
67% 20-10
ATS
68% 21-10
50% 15-15
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
TTL
65% 20-11
50% 15-15
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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