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SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE

SPARTANSUPST

9-12  |  Road

65
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Paul Porter Arena
View Odds Details →

GARDNER-WEBB

RUNNIN' BULLDOGSGWEB

2-19  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS
100%
SPARTANS --
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpartansUPST (-3.5) 0 Runnin' BulldogsGWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

34.5%

Runnin' Bulldogs Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GWEB +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GWEB)

UPST By 1-7 points

27.4%

UPST By 8-14 points

21.6%

GWEB By 1-7 points

20.1%

GWEB By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
93
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
89
GARDNER-WEBB
Simulated Score
67
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
75
GARDNER-WEBB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Runnin' Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Runnin' Bulldogs (+11) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Runnin' Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 GWEB @ UPST 65 - 64
Feb 28, 2026 GWEB @ UPST 61 - 71
Jan 23, 2026 UPST @ GWEB 65 - 67
Mar 5, 2025 UPST @ GWEB 63 - 83
Feb 15, 2025 GWEB @ UPST 96 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +69.6% more
South Carolina Upstate: 4.6 vs Gardner-Webb: 1.4
Rebounding (L5) +19.5% more
South Carolina Upstate: 35.7 vs Gardner-Webb: 28.8
Assists (L5) +11.4% more
South Carolina Upstate: 10.9 vs Gardner-Webb: 9.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
South Carolina Upstate: 33.0% vs Gardner-Webb: 28.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UPST Score 93.0 65
GWEB Score 89.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 33.0 29.0 / 33.0
Assists 9.7 / 10.9 7.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.4 / 4.6 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 42.1 43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 61.6 / 64.2 77.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 28.8 / 35.7 40.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.2 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 16.6 / 11.1 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UPST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
GWEB
4-29-0 (12.1%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UPST
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
GWEB Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -3.5
GWEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GWEB
UPST
GWEB
UPST
ML
73% 22-8
61% 19-12
63% 19-11
83% 25-5
ATS
73% 22-8
61% 19-12
63% 19-11
83% 25-5
TTL
53% 16-14
52% 16-15
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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