Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Volunteers @ Crimson Tide TENN @ ALA

TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

12-6  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 8:30 PM ET
Coleman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

13-5  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
0%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
100%
VOLUNTEERS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Tennessee)
VolunteersTENN (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Volunteers Cover

69.1%

Crimson Tide Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TENN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

TENN By 1-7 points

27.2%

TENN By 8-14 points

23.0%

ALA By 1-7 points

18.6%

ALA By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
TENNESSEE
77
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
73
TENNESSEE
76
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Volunteers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Volunteers (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 ALA @ TENN 71 - 69
Jan 24, 2026 TENN @ ALA 79 - 73
Mar 1, 2025 ALA @ TENN 76 - 79
Mar 2, 2024 TENN @ ALA 81 - 74
Jan 20, 2024 ALA @ TENN 71 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.6% more
Tennessee: 14.5 vs Alabama: 8.9
Steals (L5) +30.4% more
Tennessee: 8.2 vs Alabama: 5.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Tennessee: 36.4% vs Alabama: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Tennessee: 45.7% vs Alabama: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 82.0 79
ALA Score 77.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 36.4 23.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.9 / 15.0 9.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.7 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 45.7 43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 67.9 71.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 41.6 33.0 / 42.0
Steals 5.7 / 8.2 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 14.5 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN Advantage
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
TENN
ALA
TENN
ML
63% 22-13
46% 17-20
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
ATS
60% 21-14
54% 20-17
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
TTL
63% 22-13
76% 28-9
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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