NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HUSKIESNIU
6-12 | Road
53
BALL STATE
CARDINALSBALL
6-13 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
0%
CARDINALS
100%
HUSKIES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Northern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NIU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)
NIU By 1-7 points
21.6%
NIU By 8-14 points
27.4%
BALL By 1-7 points
9.3%
BALL By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Illinois
85
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Ball State
74
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Illinois
74
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Ball State
65
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Huskies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Huskies (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Huskies (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
BALL @ NIU
79 - 43
Jan 24, 2026
NIU @ BALL
53 - 58
Feb 15, 2025
NIU @ BALL
83 - 89
Jan 25, 2025
BALL @ NIU
66 - 76
Feb 20, 2024
BALL @ NIU
70 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+49.6% more
Northern Illinois: 16.4
vs
Ball State: 8.2
Rebounding (L5)
+18.3% more
Northern Illinois: 36.6
vs
Ball State: 29.9
Blocks (L5)
+67.2% more
Ball State: 2.9
vs
Northern Illinois: 1.7
Steals (L5)
+16.1% more
Ball State: 7.9
vs
Northern Illinois: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NIU Score
85.0
53
BALL Score
74.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 33.2
28.0 / 14.0
Assists
11.9 / 11.2
9.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.9 / 1.7
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 40.6
45.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 68.9
61.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
29.9 / 36.6
29.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.9 / 6.8
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 16.4
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
BALL
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
BALL
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -4.8
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
NIU
BALL
NIU
ML
43%
13-17
67%
20-10
62%
18-11
66%
19-10
ATS
67%
20-10
63%
19-11
62%
18-11
66%
19-10
TTL
50%
15-15
67%
20-10
100%
29-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
Drake Men's Basketball Enters Year 2 Under Eric Henderson with R…
Greg Gard: Wisconsin Basketball Has Evolved While Keeping Its Id…
.jpg)
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…